Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 12.830616 14.680590 16.672544 18.973051 21.552735 24.352230 27.616168
2025-06-01 10.030686 12.524758 15.418806 19.009691 23.328994 28.339578 34.573445
2025-06-08 8.473344 11.195543 14.509585 18.812542 24.219952 30.755616 39.214435
2025-06-15 7.426367 10.321911 14.000811 18.972414 25.463205 33.591407 44.473202
2025-06-22 6.780699 9.842518 13.876872 19.516153 27.117767 36.921411 50.417261
2025-06-29 5.989080 9.063565 13.257993 19.311878 27.721482 38.869526 54.618330
2025-07-06 5.104708 8.049214 12.205664 18.394659 27.245282 39.291492 56.734124
2025-07-13 4.758882 7.772324 12.151385 18.845958 28.655935 42.305014 62.477421
2025-07-20 4.430243 7.482818 12.043031 19.190521 29.907146 45.127780 68.055695
2025-07-27 4.040549 7.057116 11.688880 19.129346 30.539118 47.073109 72.445023
2025-08-03 3.658989 6.605141 11.252194 18.898514 30.882648 48.588907 76.247489
2025-08-10 3.375008 6.284956 10.992301 18.913207 31.581703 50.637269 80.894795
2025-08-17 3.148443 6.047106 10.854903 19.125170 32.617469 53.269642 86.587885
2025-08-24 2.899850 5.747376 10.591389 19.110955 33.288910 55.371714 91.565077
2025-08-31 2.649564 5.418322 10.248124 18.930870 33.665175 57.008551 95.861132
2025-09-07 2.479342 5.219529 10.111630 19.085185 34.587145 59.530305 101.629038
2025-09-14 2.384720 5.154226 10.203363 19.634157 36.188415 63.195577 109.347147
2025-09-21 2.188441 4.872169 9.881194 19.427949 36.485860 64.743750 113.698327
2025-09-28 1.915711 4.409779 9.189179 18.506082 35.484944 64.092194 114.406023
2025-10-05 1.842396 4.348853 9.247806 18.959714 36.919459 67.560598 122.054704
2025-10-12 1.760993 4.262941 9.250784 19.306168 38.173609 70.765028 129.368387
2025-10-19 1.639604 4.079014 9.047072 19.244650 38.679076 72.696756 134.584023
2025-10-26 1.510337 3.864691 8.765702 19.012581 38.852790 74.049598 138.843558